Impact assessment of the MEPS under discussion in the context of the EPBD revision

Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) are under discussion in the frame of the revision of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) as a tool to trigger renovation of buildings in the European Union and reduce GHG emissions. To inform this discussion, Climact and BPIE modelled the impacts of MEPS schemes on the European building stock. This allows comparing the ambition of MEPS as originally proposed by the European Commission with two other scenarios: the REPowerEU plan and a scenario aligned with the EU climate and energy consumption reduction targets set by Fitfor55¹. The modelling was done in June 2022 and mainly accounts for the proposals from the EU Commission, REPowerEU and the EP rapporteur for the EPBD revision, Ciáran Cuffe.

READ THE FACTSHEET 

Three main scenarios were considered, consisting of progressive EPC level improvements, starting with the worst performing buildings, with varying timing and level of improvements: 

• EPBD-baseline: is the MEPS design suggested by the Commission in its EPBD revision proposal, 
• RePower EU: is the one proposed in the Repower EU plan, 
• Comprehensive: is a MEPS designed to trigger deeper renovations of the worst-performing buildings.  

An ambitious MEPS can contribute to the GHG emissions reduction targets set by Fitfor55 

The analysis shows that: 

• The MEPS proposed by the Commission in the EPBD revision proposal (EPBD-baseline) would reduce GHG emissions by 9%. In the absence of long-term objectives, it would not prepare the building stock for the phase-out of fossil fuels. This would not be sufficient to ensure the building sector brings the foreseen contribution to the Fitfor55 targets.  
• Repower EU’s MEPS proposal can have a higher impact, reducing GHG emissions by 17%.  
• A more ambitious design of the MEPS could reduce GHG emissions by 21%, contributing alone to achieving 1/3 of the building sector target for 2030.  

(a) Total EU gas consumption – (b) EU GHG Emissions from EU building under various scenarios in 2030 compared to EU targets

It also shows that an ambitious MEPS framework can decrease the EU gas demand by about 9%, while the Commission’s proposal in the EPBD for MEPS would decrease gas consumption by only around 4%. 

Most GHG emission reductions derive from the MEPS applied to residential buildings 

MEPS applied on private residential buildings contribute to the majority of the GHG emission reductions of each scenario (6% in the baseline scenario, 13% in the REPowerEU and 16% in the ambitious scenario. Excluding private residential buildings would significantly lower the potential of MEPS to contribute to the Fitfor55targets. 

GHG emission reduction compared to 2015 under various scenarios in 2030