A macroeconomic analysis fed by a participative approach.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to limiting global temperature rise this century to well below 2°C, with efforts to keep it within 1.5°C. Achieving this requires near-zero or negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the second half of the century. In line with this, the European Union and its member states, including Belgium, aim to decarbonize their economies by 2050. Belgium has initiated efforts to develop a national low carbon strategy, starting with the creation of energy transition scenarios. These scenarios help determine key energy indicators like renewable energy share, energy efficiency, and GHG reductions. However, understanding the macroeconomic impacts of these transitions, such as on growth, employment, and public finances, is crucial. This paper presents Belgium’s innovative approach, which integrates energy transition scenarios into a macroeconomic model to analyze these impacts. The paper outlines the motivation, the participative scenario development process, and the resulting macroeconomic effects.