Where do the current climate policies in Belgium lead us to? Well, not to net zero by 2050, as CLIMACT and the Federal Planning Bureau revealed. To explore the implications of current policies, take a look at our transparent transition simulator:
3 October 2024
-
-
-
Pledged climate policy measures were submitted by Belgium and its regions to the United Nations back in June 2023. About a year later, the Federal Planning Bureau concluded these pledges fall short of the EU’s 2050 goals with strong differences between sectors between sectors.
-
-
Climact now used its transparent Pathways Explorer further to assess the sectorial implications of these policy announcements. Our simulation differs from the Federal Planning Bureau as it considers updated historical trends and actual technology potential.
Overall, even though building renovation plans are not far from a Paris-aligned pace, other sectors don’t decarbonize fast enough:
- A 40% GHG reduction from 2021 is needed to reach the -55% target by 2030, but current pledges only manage -13%.
- Belgium’s renewable energy share is set to reach just 24%, far below the 34% target.
- Energy consumption reduction is only -8% versus the -11.7% EU target.
While renewable energy capacity in our simulation is expected to surge (with wind and solar set to triple and double, respectively, by 2030), electricity production remains carbon-intensive. This is partially due to the gas capacity which could double by 2050 if electricity demand grows as predicted. This raises risks in terms of energy dependence, energy price volatility and health.
To improve our energy security and costs, the upcoming and new Belgian governments are encouraged to re-align climate policies with our claimed net-zero vision.